What “martial law” in Thailand really means—censorship, selfies, and uncertainty
BANGKOK—The political discord that has shaken Thailand for months entered an uncertain new phase at dawn today, as the country’s military declared martial law (paywall), granting itself broad powers to “suppress unrest” and take control of the country’s public security.
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What does martial law look like?
There
hasn’t been any violence in the streets, and life in Bangkok is
proceeding normally for most people. The military has deployed armed
soldiers at key intersections, shopping malls, protest sites, and TV
stations, but the mood is calm, with bystanders taking pictures at
the barricades.
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AP Photo/Kiko Rosario
The
armed forces have claimed the authority to enforce curfews, take up
arms against rioters, censor information, prohibit public gatherings,
and arrest and detain people for up to seven days, among other powers.
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The
military has flexed its muscles so far by encircling a group of
supporters of the populist government (known as red shirts) on the
outskirts of Bangkok, evicting a group of anti-government protesters who
had been occupying government offices, and shutting down about a dozen
ideologically-based satellite TV channels and community radio stations
on both sides.
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Here’s the full list of martial powers, which can only be rescinded by a royal decree from King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-serving monarch.
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Coup? What coup?
The
army insisted that its actions did not constitute a coup d’état. “This
is definitely not a coup. This is only to provide safety to the people
and the people can still carry on their lives as normal,” one military
official told the AP.
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Yet
the caretaker government of acting Prime Minister Niwatthamrong
Boonsongphaisan—aligned with the rural faction based in northern
Thailand that is at odds with much of the country’s establishment
elite—said it had no forewarning of the army’s action. One government
aide called it “half a coup d’état,” adding: “We have to watch and see if the army chief honors his declaration of impartiality.”
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Who’s in charge?
Reuters/Chaiwat Subprasom
That
would be Royal Thai Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha. In a televised speech
early on Tuesday morning, he told Thais that the army “intends to bring
peace to the beloved country of all Thais as soon as possible.”
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Supporters
of the populist government have reason to question Prayuth’s claim of
impartiality. He has a reputation as a fierce opponent of Thaksin
Shinawatra—the exiled former prime minister and leader of the red
shirts—and was “the leading proponent of using force” against them
during bloody protests in 2010. Prayuth is due to retire later this year.
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Did anyone see this coming?
Military
interventions are relatively commonplace in Thailand. The armed
forces have attempted 18 coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in
1932—an average of one every four and a half years.
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Until
now, Thailand’s military has tried to stay on the sidelines during the
unrest of the last few months, which saw large anti-government protests
paralyze Bangkok and the ouster of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra,
Thaksin’s sister. But intervention by the armed forces was always a
distinct possibility, especially with an escalating body count due to
violence at protest sites.
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In January, asked about rumors of an imminent coup, Prayath said—in either a veiled warning or slip of the tongue—“people are scared of something that hasn’t taken place yet.”
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How will Thailand’s opposing factions respond?
Calmly,
thus far. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, as the
red shirts are officially known, said on Twitter that its members would
wait and see whether the army tried to replace the caretaker government
before deciding how to respond.
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Despite
the red-shirt gathering on the outskirts of Bangkok being encircled by
the army, people are allowed to come and go as they please.
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Thaksin,
in his first tweet in months, said martial law was expected, but he
hoped it would not “lead to the repression of human rights and
undermining of democracy, since it might worsen Thailand’s image in the
eyes of the world,” according to a translation by Asian Correspondent.
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Meanwhile,
the military evicted demonstrators from the People’s Democratic Reform
Committee, the main anti-government protest group, from the government
buildings they have been occupying on-and-off for the last few months.
PDRC leader Suthep Thaugsuban said his group would cancel a march
planned for today but will maintain its protest site in Bangkok.
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What will happen next?
The
big question is whether the army will allow elections scheduled for
July 20 to proceed, which would almost certainly result in another
victory for the pro-Thaksinites, or will back the appointment of an
unelected prime minister who is more acceptable to the Thai
establishment. Given Prayath’s background, the former course is hard to
imagine, and the latter would create a volatile stand-off with the red
shirts.
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“We
think the main reason for the declaration of martial law is to ensure
the situation remains under control when the Senate appoints a new PM,”
Nomura analyst Nithi Wanikpun wrote in a note to clients.
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What will this do to the Thai economy?
Thailand
has weathered many political upheavals and natural disasters, earning
it the sobriquet “Teflon Thailand,” but as Quartz has reported, the
nonstick surface is showing some heavy scratches: GDP fell 0.6% in the first quarter as
consumer confidence and foreign investment plummeted. It’s unclear
whether the declaration of martial law will exacerbate those fears, or
create a stable starting point for the country to move forward.
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“The
imposition of martial law is not, in itself, negative for Thailand’s
ratings, although clearly we are keeping the situation under close
review,” said Fitch Ratings analyst Andrew Colquhoun in a note to
clients. “It may even help to break Thailand out of the political
deadlock of the past six months, by which the two sides have failed to
agree on arrangements for new elections.”
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The
country’s tourism industry will likely take an additional hit from
martial law declaration—the carefree image of Thailand’s sunny beaches
tends to clash with soldiers with automatic weaponry—though the impact
may be muted because it is currently the low season for tourists.
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